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Nike’s (NYSE: NKE) stock is now close to some of the lowest prices in about 3 years, and I can see that many people have gained quite a bit of interest in them.
But, there are a few issues that I want to address later in the video.
Nike made $6.2 billion last year, which would put them at a ratio of around 22. It was much higher 1, 2, 3 years ago, but it doesn’t mean this is cheap now. It was very expensive in 2021 for example due to the pandemic hype but now it’s getting to a fairer value.
We can see that North America represents a big chunk of the revenues, so there is potential to grow outside, especially in Europe.
Now, something very attractive about Nike: the $24.75 billion in current assets is enough to cover not only the current liabilities, but the total liabilities. A bunch of them is in inventories, but even without that, they are still doing very well. The only issue I see is that you don’t have that many long-term assets, but the value of the brand itself for example is not included in something like this. So, overall, I’d say they are quite good from a financial point of view.
We can see that the debt is very well spread through the future, and not even the bigger years should come with a significant repayment. The interest rate is also very very small and there is nothing to be paid this year.
Unlike Starbucks - which I talked about recently - Nike has the advantage of a very strong balance sheet, meaning that when they think about growth, they don’t have to worry about the debt. And this is very important.
Nike also pays a small 1.5% dividend and have a 4-year $18 bil buyback program started in 2022. I appreciate that they didn’t do it in 2021 when the stock was at its peak. So, the dividend is about $2 billion, and the buybacks would be another $4.5 to $5 billion per year, meaning a return of around 5%. However, based on the company’s cash flows, that’s not sustainable. To be honest, 1.5% is nothing - I wouldn’t even call this a dividend stock - but $2 billion for a company that’s investing like $1 billion per year can make quite a difference.
Now, this is a very competitive market, with small margins, and exposed to a recession. Nike has a very powerful brand, but the average person probably wouldn’t buy too much Nike in a recession. So, in a recession - as we’ve seen before - they can crash 30-40%, so keep that in mind.
And in the long-term with so many brands developing, it’s gonna be even tougher to maintain a good market position, so this is why I think a dividend and even a buyback cut and focus on investing should be optimal.
Think about it: Nike talks about growth so much, but how would they achieve it? A company worth $130-40 billion investing like a few billion per year in marketing simply can’t grow too much.
Another thing with potential is the focus on Direct-to-Consumer, because if they cut the middleman, they can increase the profit without having to sell more.
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Medical Properties Trust (MPW) Stock Analysis - https://youtu.be/SiLVQKIm6q4
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Stellantis (STLA) Stock Analysis - https://youtu.be/b6aAlGls9O8
Nokia (NOK) Stock Analysis - https://youtu.be/LksBa929CI4
Alibaba (BABA) Stock Analysis - https://youtu.be/XoXtXRndiTU
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On my channel, you will find a wide variety of stock analyses - from gold miners such as Barrick Gold (NYSE: GOLD) and Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM) to tech stocks like Nokia (NYSE: NOK), Alphabet (NYSE: GOOG/GOOGL), Intel (NYSE: INTC) and even healthcare REITs like Medical Properties Trust (NYSE: MPW) and Omega Healthcare Investors (NYSE: OHI).
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