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VICI Properties (VICI) and EPR Properties (EPR) are net lease REITs just like Realty Income (O) and National Retail Properties (NNN). They have great track records of dividend growth and market outperformance, but are they good investment opportunities today? Which one is the best REIT for 2023? You can access my entire REIT Portfolio by taking a 2-week free trial to my REIT newsletter, High Yield Landlord: https://seekingalpha.com/checkout?service_id=mp_1268
Realty Income, The Monthly Dividend Company (O Stock) is the gold standard of net lease REITs. It has done very well in the past, but I prefer VICI Properties and EPR Properties, which are some of its contenders. Realty Income has shorter leases, smaller rent hikes, more capex responsibilities, and lacks CPI adjustments in its leases. Despite that, it is priced at a higher valuation than VICI stock and EPR stock and therefore, I believe that it is not the top REIT for 2023.
EPR is a triple net lease REIT that specializes in experiential properties such as movie theaters, water parks, and golf complexes. In 2022, it hiked its dividend by 10%, but its share price dropped and as a result, it now offers a 9% dividend yield. The market fears that movie theaters are going to die and that its tenants AMC and Cinemark (CNK) will default on their leases. I agree that many theaters will close in the coming years. But where I disagree is that I think that this will actually benefit EPR's theaters. I think that it is a case of the weak getting weaker and the strong getting stronger. The lower quality theaters will close down, but this will consolidate traffic towards the higher quality theaters such as those of EPR. Good theaters are not going anywhere because they remain the best option for studios to monetize new blockbusters. The new Avatar movie is already one of the highest-grossing movies of all time and so clearly, people still enjoy going to movie theaters. Today, EPR's theaters are already profitable at the property level with 1.4x rent coverage even as we still emerge from the pandemic. Now, the movie slate is improving and so I would expect the rent coverage to only improve further in 2023.
You should discount EPR for the exposure to movie theaters, but not by so much. The theaters only represent around 1/4 of its portfolio as measured by NAV, and the remaining 3/4 is doing very well. Yet, EPR is priced today at just 8x, which is a nearly two times lower multiple than that of other net lease REITs: Realty Income (O), National Retail Properties (NNN), and VICI Properties (VICI). We think that as the health of its tenants continues to improve, EPR will eventually reprice at closer to a 6% dividend yield, unlocking up to 50% upside to shareholders.
VICI Properties is a net lease REIT that has grown its dividend at a rapid pace since going public. Its casino properties are more resilient and it enjoys faster FFO per share growth than EPR. Some of its biggest tenants are MGM and Caesars. However, it also has a lower dividend yield and less upside potential. VICI stock is a better GARP / dividend growth investment for a conservative dividend investor.
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Image sources: VICI Properties, EPR Properties, Realty Income, National Retail Properties, NAREIT, YCHARTS, imgflip, Canva Important Disclaimer: This video is impersonal and does not provide individualized advice or recommendations for any specific person. Viewers/readers should not make any investment decision without conducting their own due diligence and consulting their financial advisor about their specific situation. This video is for entertainment purposes only and you are responsible for your own investment decisions. The information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The opinions expressed are those of the publisher and are subject to change without notice. This YouTube channel is managed by Leonberg Research OÜ, a subsidiary of Leonberg Capital OÜ.
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